Freight Market Load-to-Truck Ratios Declined in 2026
The national freight ratio cooled to a 1.3-to-1.5 range between July and August 2026 as market demand shifted.
Updated on Sept. 29, 2026 in Transportation
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National freight market load-to-truck ratios cooled from a 2-to-1 ratio in early 2025 to a 1.3-to-1.5 range during July and August 2026. This transition occurred alongside a 2% to 3% decrease in total industry capacity.
Why it matters
Company leadership attributes the market shift to strict FMCSA enforcement removing participants and a notable decline in food and beverage volumes linked to GLP-1 weight-loss medication usage.
Covenant Logistics Group reduced its solo over-the-road truck count while expanding its Lou Thompson chicken-hauling division to 800 trucks. Bakery freight volumes experienced a 10% decline during the period.
The players
Covenant Logistics Group
This logistics company provides specialized transportation services and manages a large fleet of over-the-road trucks.
Lou Thompson
This division of Covenant Logistics Group focuses on poultry transportation with an average haul distance of 48 miles.
The details
Covenant Logistics Group maintains a fleet composition of 60% Freightliner and 40% Peterbilt trucks to manage operations. The company utilizes partnerships with freight forwarders to match loads and maximize asset utilization across its network.
Timeline
2023: Covenant Logistics Group acquired the Lou Thompson division.
First half of 2025: Load-to-truck ratios held at approximately 2-to-1.
July and August 2026: Ratios shifted to the current 1.3-to-1.5 range.
Next 18 months: Team-operated trucks are scheduled for replacement.
Through 2032: Data center construction projects are expected to continue.
Market Landscape
The industry is currently anticipating a 3-to-4-year freight supercycle driven by domestic manufacturing and the rapid expansion of data centers. These construction-heavy sectors are expected to remain a critical source of demand through at least 2032.
Shifts in freight volume and carrier capacity can influence retail pricing for food and consumer goods across the country. Consumers may notice availability changes or price adjustments as logistics providers like Covenant Logistics Group adapt to new market demand levels.
The takeaway
The logistics sector is pivoting toward specialized divisions to mitigate the impact of declining general freight volumes. Businesses are increasingly banking on the multi-year demand generated by data center construction to offset shifts in the consumer food market.
What happens next
Team-operated trucks across the fleet are scheduled for replacement over the next 18 months.
Further reading
Learn more about evolving logistics trends in the Transportation sector.
Source note: This article includes information reported by FreightWaves.
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