Adobe Forecasted Record Online Holiday Spending

The company expects U.S. online holiday spending to reach a record $275.1 billion this year.

Updated on Sept. 28, 2026 in Spending

Bold flat-color editorial illustration showing a lone cardboard box on a doorstep, evoking the scale of national online retail holiday shopping. — Adobe projected U.S. online holiday spending to hit a record $275.1 billion this year, reflecting consistent growth in digital retail engagement. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

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Adobe released its 2026 holiday shopping forecast, projecting that U.S. online spending will hit a record $275.1 billion during November and December. Total online retail sales for the quarter are expected to exceed $370 billion.

Why it matters

Consumers are increasingly prioritizing value and deal-seeking throughout the season, leading to record levels of digital engagement. Retailers rely on these digital traffic trends and flexible payment options to capture consistent revenue.

Adobe projects $275.1 billion in holiday online spending, representing a 6.7% growth rate. Total spending for the three-month period from October through December is expected to exceed $370 billion.

The players

Adobe

Adobe is a global technology company known for its multimedia and creativity software, which also provides retail data analytics.

The details

Shoppers are leveraging AI-driven search tools to validate deals and are increasingly utilizing Buy Now Pay Later platforms to manage transactions. The forecast is derived from data analyzing more than 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail websites.

September 28, 2026: The forecast was released.
October 6-7, 2026: Prime Days sales events occur.
November and December 2026: Primary holiday season spending window.
November 30, 2026: Cyber Monday.

Market Dynamics

The projected surge in digital commerce continues a long-term transition in retail where online channels capture an increasing share of consumer budgets. This growth follows the established 6.8% increase seen in 2025, confirming a sustained shift toward AI-integrated shopping habits.

Shoppers can expect continued reliance on AI tools and Buy Now Pay Later services to secure the best prices during the peak season. These trends suggest that retail inventory and promotional strategies will be highly optimized for digital-first purchasing throughout the final quarter.

The takeaway

Consumers should be prepared to use AI search tools to find competitive deals as digital retail activity continues to hit record highs. Managing personal debt remains important as shoppers utilize flexible payment platforms to facilitate their holiday purchases.