Food Industry Association Projected Rising Grocery Prices
Rising energy costs and new trade tariffs are expected to push food prices higher through early 2027.
Updated on Sept. 21, 2026 in Inflation
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FMI - The Food Industry Association has projected an increase in grocery food prices for the fourth quarter of 2026. This anticipated rise follows a period of stable food-at-home costs, with the Consumer Price Index showing 0% inflation in the most recent month.
Why it matters
Higher global energy costs stemming from conflict in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz are increasing supply chain expenses. Retailers have reached the limits of their ability to absorb these rising costs, meaning the pressure will likely shift to consumer prices.
The U.S. Grocery Shopper Sentiment Index currently stands at 69, reflecting consumer sentiment amid market shifts. Approximately 75% of supermarket products contain corn, a key commodity tied to food production costs.
The players
FMI - The Food Industry Association
This trade association represents the food retail and wholesale industry in the United States.
The details
While beef and produce prices decreased recently, costs for poultry, dairy, fats, and oils rose. The U.S. has also imposed new tariffs on Canadian dairy, molasses, and baking products, which industry experts warn will elevate wholesale prices before they impact grocery shelves in the next six to 12 months.
Timeline
September 17, 2026: FMI held a briefing on food price trends.
September 2026: National Family Meals Month occurred.
Q4 2026: An uptick in food price inflation is expected.
Early 2027: Retail food prices are expected to continue rising.
Macro View
This projection aligns with historical economic cycles where surges in energy costs create delayed inflationary pressure across the retail food sector. Recent price stabilization mirrors periods before past supply chain shocks, indicating a potential divergence from current trends.
Shoppers can expect higher bills at the grocery store as increased supply chain costs are passed on to consumers. With inflation expected to rise through early 2027, families may need to adjust their monthly food budgets to account for climbing prices on essential staples.
The takeaway
Consumers should prepare for a period of sustained food price increases as the industry absorbs higher energy and import costs. Diversifying food purchases and monitoring price trends in specific categories like dairy and poultry may help mitigate the impact on household expenses.
Further reading
Learn more about price trends in the Inflation section.
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Do you expect your grocery spending to increase over the next six months?
