Cox Automotive Raised 2026 New-Car Sales Forecast
The firm now projects 16.1 million vehicles will be sold in 2026 amid shifting buyer demographics.
Updated on Sept. 21, 2026 in Buying/Selling
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Cox Automotive has increased its 2026 new-car sales forecast to 16.1 million vehicles, up from a previous estimate of 15.8 million. The adjustment follows positive economic indicators, including a surging stock market and low unemployment.
Why it matters
New-vehicle buyers have become a significantly wealthier demographic compared to 2020, as economic conditions continue to influence purchasing power. As consumer spending accounts for 70% of total U.S. economic activity, these trends serve as a vital indicator for the broader national economy.
Buyers with annual incomes exceeding $150,000 currently account for 43% of 2026 year-to-date sales, compared to 29% in 2020. Conversely, those earning under $100,000 now make up 36% of sales, down from 50% in 2020.
The players
Cox Automotive
This company provides data, software, and digital marketing services to the automotive industry.
American International Automobile Dealers Association
This trade association represents international nameplate automobile franchises across the United States.
The details
Cox Automotive presented the updated projections during an industry webinar on September 17. The data highlights a pronounced shift toward luxury and high-end vehicle segments as lower-income buyers represent a decreasing share of the market.
Timeline
2020 served as the baseline year for buyer demographic comparisons.
U.S. new-car sales reached 16.3 million units in 2025.
The previous sales forecast was updated in June 2026.
An industry webinar presenting the new figures occurred on September 17, 2026.
The current forecast applies to the full 2026 calendar year.
Roadmap
The automotive industry is seeing a clear bifurcation as high-income buyers sustain sales volumes while affordability remains a challenge for the broader population. This trend reflects a wider industry shift toward higher transaction prices that are increasingly detached from median household income levels.
Car buyers should expect to see dealer inventories increasingly weighted toward premium trims as manufacturers prioritize higher-income demographics. These market shifts often translate into fewer budget-friendly entry-level models appearing on local dealership lots.
The takeaway
Understanding these demographic shifts can help shoppers anticipate whether they will find more inventory for luxury vehicles or base models at local dealers. Buyers should remain aware that current economic indicators favor higher-income earners, which may limit price competition in the near term.
Further reading
For more on market trends, visit the Buying/Selling section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Ward's Communications Online.
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