NOAA Released Seasonal Weather Forecast for 2026

The national forecast predicts varied temperature and precipitation patterns through the end of the year.

Updated on Sept. 19, 2026 in Forecasts

Bold flat-color editorial illustration of swirling cloud bands in navy and cream, representing seasonal weather systems as discussed in federal outlooks. — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its seasonal weather outlook for late 2026, projecting temperature and precipitation variations through December. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

Live Poll

Does the updated seasonal weather forecast make you feel more concerned about your upcoming winter preparations?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its updated seasonal weather outlook on September 17, 2026. The forecast projects temperature and precipitation patterns across the United States through December.

Why it matters

The seasonal outlook provides essential guidance on expected climate variations driven by significant atmospheric shifts. Understanding these patterns helps communities and industries prepare for potential extremes in heat and rainfall during the autumn and winter.

NOAA projects a 90% probability of a super El Niño, with a 75% chance of it becoming the strongest such event since 1950. The model accounts for jet stream positioning through the end of 2026.

The players

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

This federal agency is responsible for monitoring oceanic and atmospheric conditions to provide weather forecasts and climate data.

The details

Most of the country is expected to see above-average temperatures, particularly across northern states, California, and Nevada. A band extending from Southern California to the mid-Atlantic is slated for above-average rain, while parts of the Pacific Northwest and the Great Lakes face dry conditions.

September 17, 2026: NOAA released the updated seasonal forecast.
October to December 2026: The outlook period for anticipated temperature and precipitation.

Seasonal Patterns

The current forecast identifies a high probability of an extreme El Niño, placing it in direct comparison to the 1950 historical benchmark. These trends indicate a departure from standard seasonal expectations, reflecting an unusually strong shift in global atmospheric conditions.

Residents in regions projected for above-average rainfall should check local drainage and flood preparedness resources. Those in areas with high warmth probabilities should monitor energy consumption and hydration safety as the autumn season approaches.

The takeaway

Predicting seasonal trends allows households to adapt their preparations for potentially warmer autumns or wetter winters. Staying informed on these NOAA projections helps in managing everything from utility planning to travel expectations for the remainder of the year.