Josh Allen Has Taken Lead in NFL MVP Betting Market
The Buffalo Bills quarterback currently holds a 25% probability to secure the league award.
Updated on Sept. 18, 2026 in Football
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Josh Allen has ascended to the top of the NFL MVP betting market with a 25% win probability. He saw his standing rise sharply from an 11% probability at the start of the season.
Why it matters
The shift reflects Allen's exceptional performance over a two-week span where he recorded nine total touchdowns. His dominant start positions him ahead of other top contenders like Lamar Jackson and Caleb Williams.
Josh Allen accumulated 582 passing yards and 92 rushing yards over the first two weeks of play. He is currently on pace to finish the season with over 4,900 passing yards and roughly 42 passing touchdowns.
The players
Josh Allen
He is the Buffalo Bills quarterback who finished in the top-five of MVP voting in five of the last six seasons.
Lamar Jackson
He is a professional NFL quarterback who currently shares a 12% MVP win probability with Caleb Williams.
Caleb Williams
He is a professional NFL quarterback who is currently tied with Lamar Jackson at a 12% MVP win probability.
The details
Allen achieved this market lead after strong performances against the Houston Texans and the Detroit Lions. His high-volume output includes five passing touchdowns and four rushing touchdowns throughout the two-week period.
Timeline
Josh Allen won the NFL MVP award in 2024.
Allen held a 17% MVP win probability during Week 1.
Allen reached a 25% MVP win probability by Week 2.
The Buffalo Bills are scheduled to face the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 3.
Season Trajectory
Josh Allen has maintained a consistent level of elite performance, having finished in the top-five of MVP voting in five of the last six seasons. His early-season dominance signals a strong push to replicate his 2024 MVP success.
A $10 trade on Allen winning the MVP currently offers a return of $28 in profit for bettors. His status as the market leader indicates he is the primary player to watch for fantasy scoring and efficiency metrics.
The takeaway
Allen's ability to contribute through both the air and on the ground makes him a unique threat in the MVP race. Investors and fans should monitor his production in the upcoming Week 3 matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers.
Further reading
Explore more in-depth analysis on the current Football landscape.
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