El Nino Forecast to Bring Milder Winter
Environment Canada senior climatologist David Phillips expects a milder-than-normal winter as a record El Nino peaks in late November or early December.
Updated on Nov. 2, 2026 in Forecasts
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Environment Canada senior climatologist David Phillips has forecast a milder-than-normal winter, as a record-breaking El Nino is expected to peak in late November or early December. Above-normal temperatures and less snow are expected, though freezing rain and sudden heavy snowstorms will still occur.
Why it matters
El Nino is a natural climate pattern marked by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The forecast is based on the fact that all four strong El Nino winters observed in the last 80 years were warmer than normal.
The forecast draws on four strong El Nino events recorded over 80 years, each followed by a warmer-than-normal winter. How strongly this year's event will shift Canadian winter temperatures and snowfall beyond those past cases has not been specified.
The players
David Phillips
David Phillips is Environment Canada's senior climatologist, known for his winter forecasts.
Environment Canada
Environment Canada is the federal department responsible for weather forecasting and climate monitoring across Canada.
The details
Winter is expected to bring above-normal temperatures, with less snow and faster melting when snow does fall. Days of freezing rain and sudden heavy snowstorms are still expected to occur despite the milder overall outlook.
Timeline
The record El Nino is expected to peak in late November or early December.
Seasonal Patterns
This forecast follows a documented pattern in which all four strong El Nino winters over the last 80 years were warmer than normal. The current record-breaking event is expected to continue that pattern, offering a milder winter outlook for Canada.
Expect less snow and faster melting this winter, but do not let a milder season lull you into complacency. Freezing rain and sudden heavy snowstorms are still expected, so keep winter driving and home preparedness plans in place.
The takeaway
A milder winter is likely, but it will not eliminate the risk of freezing rain or sudden heavy snow. Plan for variable conditions rather than assuming a mild season throughout.
What happens next
The El Nino is expected to peak in late November or early December, which will test the milder winter outlook.
Further reading
For more on how seasonal outlooks are developed, see the Forecasts section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by My Bancroft Now.
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