Australia to Face Quieter Tropical Cyclone Season

Forecasters predict five to eight named storms for the upcoming season ending in April.

Updated on Oct. 31, 2026 in Forecasts

A large, swirling tropical storm system gathers over a deep blue ocean, evoking a quiet, subdued weather season. — Forecasters expect a quieter-than-average Australian cyclone season, with projections of five to eight storms through April 2027 due to shifting climate conditions. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

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The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts expects a quieter-than-average cyclone season for Australia from 1 November 2026 to 30 April 2027. Experts project between five and eight named storms, a notable decrease from the long-term average of 11.

Why it matters

El Niño conditions are contributing to cooler waters and reduced moisture off Australia's northern coast, which typically weakens monsoon strength. This environmental pattern is projected to result in one of the quietest cyclone seasons on record.

Meteorologists generated this forecast by running models 51 times from varying starting conditions. The range of five to eight named storms sits significantly below the 1970 to 1999 mean of 13 annual events.

The players

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

This intergovernmental organisation is a major global centre for numerical weather prediction that provides medium-range forecasts to member states.

The details

The season is defined by the development of systems with winds reaching at least 63 km/h. While Queensland, the Northern Territory, and the Gulf of Carpentaria may see near-normal activity, overall conditions remain subdued.

The 2026/27 Australian cyclone season runs from 1 November 2026 to 30 April 2027.
The historical long-term average has been tracked since 1970.
A mean of 13 named storms occurred annually between 1970 and 1999.
The annual average fell to nine storms beginning in the year 2000.
During the 2025/26 season, 11 total systems were recorded.

Seasonal Patterns

This season's outlook marks a notable departure from the 1970 to 1999 mean annual storm frequency of 13 events. The current trend suggests the frequency of named storms continues to track lower than the historical levels observed in the late 20th century.

Residents should remain vigilant for cyclone warnings throughout the season despite the lower overall storm forecast. Authorities advise monitoring official updates for any systems that may reach the coast, as even quieter seasons can produce destructive events.

The takeaway

While the overall forecast indicates a quieter season, individual tropical lows can still pose significant risks to coastal regions. Residents are encouraged to maintain their emergency preparedness plans regardless of seasonal predictions.