Oil Supply Outpaces Demand as Brent Falls Below $90
The International Energy Agency says supply has exceeded demand for the first time since the Iran war began, with Brent crude slipping under $US90 a barrel.
Updated on Nov. 15, 2026 in Oil and Gas
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Oil supply outpaced demand for the first time since the Iran war began, the International Energy Agency said on Friday. Brent crude prices fell below $US90 a barrel as Middle East shipments returned toward pre-war levels.
Why it matters
Ample supply is adding downward pressure on oil prices, easing costs for fuel buyers worldwide. The war has now lasted more than eight months, and flows could still slow at any moment, leaving the market exposed.
Saudi Arabia pumped 10.5 million barrels a day in October, while weekly US crude output topped 14 million barrels a day for the first time. Futures fell almost 25 per cent for the month at one point last week, and it remains unclear how long the surplus will last.
The players
International Energy Agency
The Paris-based intergovernmental body that advises major economies on energy policy and publishes closely watched oil market assessments.
OPEC
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, a producer group that sets output quotas for its members to influence global oil prices.
The details
Shipments from the Gulf have returned toward pre-war levels even as attacks in the region have killed at least one seafarer this month. Brazil and Guyana reported record crude production, and the United Arab Emirates, now free of OPEC quotas, is adding to the flow. European diesel trades at about $US170 a barrel.
Timeline
October: Saudi Arabia pumped 10.5 million barrels a day.
Last week: Futures fell almost 25 per cent for the month at one point.
This month: Attacks killed at least one seafarer.
Friday: The IEA said oil supply outpaced demand.
July: US petrol last fell below $US4 a gallon before this week.
Market Landscape
The current surplus reverses the supply-fear dynamic of 2022, when Brent crude surged above $US120 a barrel after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Producers in the Gulf, the United States, Brazil and Guyana are now pumping ahead of demand, shifting pressure from buyers to sellers.
Lower crude prices are feeding through to fuel costs, with US retail petrol falling below $US4 a gallon for the first time since July. Drivers and households may see some relief at the pump while supply remains ample.
The takeaway
Watch fuel prices closely while supply stays ample, since shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could tighten the market quickly. Budget with flexibility rather than assuming current pump prices will hold.
Further reading
Explore more reporting on Oil and Gas to see how global supply and pricing trends are shaping the energy sector.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Australian Financial Review.
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