Goldman Sachs Cuts Gold Price Targets
The bank lowered its year-end 2026 and 2027 gold forecasts, citing a more restrictive Federal Reserve stance and rising real interest rates.
Updated on Nov. 13, 2026 in Inflation
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Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end 2026 gold price target by 500 to 4,150 US dollars per ounce, and cut its year-end 2027 estimate by 600 to 4,800 US dollars per ounce. Standard Chartered maintained its year-end 2026 forecast at 4,650 US dollars per ounce.
Why it matters
The revisions reflect how rising real interest rates and bond yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, which generates no income. Gold's price trajectory affects central bank reserve strategies, investment portfolios and inflation-hedging decisions worldwide.
Goldman Sachs expects central bank gold purchases to average 60 metric tons per month in 2026 and 2027, compared with a pre-2022 average of 17 metric tons per month, while the GS Nowcast shows a three-month average near 85 metric tons. The timing of Federal Reserve rate moves and the scale of future central bank buying remain unresolved.
The players
Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs is a global investment bank headquartered in New York that publishes widely followed commodity and precious metals research.
Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered is a London-headquartered international bank with major commodities and markets research operations across Asia, Africa and the Middle East.
Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States, responsible for monetary policy including setting benchmark interest rates.
The details
Goldman Sachs analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven authored the November 5 report, which assumes another Federal Reserve rate hike in December 2026. The bank said exceptionally high demand for gold call options seen early in 2026 is likely to normalize to historical averages. On Thursday, spot gold slid more than one percent to an intraday low of 4,036.82 US dollars per ounce.
Timeline
November 5, 2026: Goldman Sachs publishes report cutting gold price targets.
December 2026: Goldman Sachs base case assumes another Federal Reserve rate hike.
March 2027: Alternative scenario of another rate hike, which the bank estimates would lift gold to 4,660 US dollars per ounce by end-2027.
Second half of 2027 to early 2028: Expected start of three rate cuts and return of capital to Western gold ETFs.
Thursday: Spot gold slid to an intraday low of 4,036.82 US dollars per ounce.
Market Landscape
Goldman Sachs' projection of 60 metric tons per month in central bank purchases sits well above the pre-2022 average of 17 metric tons, extending a structural shift in official sector gold demand. The revised targets nonetheless reflect a monetary environment in which rising real yields weigh on bullion.
Rising real interest rates that weigh on gold can also affect savings yields and borrowing costs for households. Investors holding gold-linked funds or ETFs may see returns shift as the forecasts and rate expectations change.
The takeaway
Gold prices respond sharply to real interest rates, so shifts in Federal Reserve policy are a key signal for anyone tracking precious metals. Watching central bank purchase data alongside rate expectations gives a clearer picture of where bullion is heading.
What happens next
Goldman Sachs' base case anticipates a Federal Reserve rate hike in December 2026, with a second alternative scenario of a hike in March 2027.
Further reading
For broader context on how interest-rate policy shapes price pressures, see Inflation.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Metal.
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