USDA Raises Global Cotton Outlook on Brazil Exports
Revised USDA forecasts point to higher world cotton output and trade, led by a record Brazilian export season.
Updated on Nov. 10, 2026 in International Trade
The USDA's October report raised its 2026-27 global cotton production and trade forecasts, projecting world output at 118 million bales. Brazil is expected to export a record 16 million bales, while India's imports were lifted after a temporary suspension of import duties.
Why it matters
The upward revisions reshape where cotton flows across global textile markets, as mills shift toward competitively priced Brazilian and nearby supply. Lower price forecasts for US growers and softer futures reflect how that redistribution is feeding through to producers.
USDA projections place 2026-27 world cotton production at 118 million bales, with Brazil's estimate raised 500,000 bales to 19 million and India's imports lifted 300,000 bales to 3.3 million. The increase in India's imports is tied to a temporary August-October duty suspension, and how far those purchases persist once the suspension ends is not yet clear.
The players
USDA
The United States Department of Agriculture is the federal agency that publishes the World Markets and Trade reports used as a global benchmark for cotton supply and demand projections.
The details
Brazil's expanding exports account for much of the upward revision in global trade, rising 500,000 bales to 16 million, as Turkish mills increasingly buy competitively priced Brazilian and nearby Azerbaijani cotton. Turkey's cotton imports are forecast at 5 million bales for 2026-27 as domestic output falls, while its own exports are projected to drop nearly 50%.
Timeline
August, September and October 2026: India suspends cotton import duties temporarily, prompting higher purchases.
September 8 to October 6, 2026: The Cotlook A-Index falls 4.5 cents to 91.5 cents per pound.
October 2026: USDA releases its Cotton: World Markets and Trade report with the revised forecasts.
2026-27: Brazil expected to export a record 16 million bales.
Market Dynamics
The projected record Brazilian export season builds on Brazil overtaking the US as Turkey's leading cotton supplier in 2024-25. The shift reflects Turkish mills turning to competitively priced Brazilian and nearby Azerbaijani supply as domestic production declines.
Lower USDA price forecasts for US cotton, with the farm price projected at 77 cents per pound, could affect growers' revenue planning for the coming season. Shoppers may see the effects only indirectly, as shifts in global cotton supply and pricing gradually filter into textile costs.
The takeaway
Global cotton sourcing is moving toward lower-cost suppliers, and the balance between Brazilian exports and import-driven demand will be worth watching as the 2026-27 season unfolds. Readers tracking commodity prices should follow subsequent USDA revisions for updated trade direction.
Further reading
Track the broader shifts in global commodity flows through our International Trade coverage.
