Fish Oil Supply Strains Under Super El Niño
Peru's decision to skip a second anchovy season is tightening the global supply of fish oil used in supplements.
Updated on Nov. 10, 2026 in Organic Food
Live Poll
Would rising supplement prices make you stop buying fish oil?
Peru's Ministry of Production did not authorize a second anchovy season in October 2026, after the first season closed early with 25% of the quota caught. The majority of fish oil used in supplements worldwide is sourced from the Peruvian anchovy fishery.
Why it matters
Fish oil suppliers have become heavily reliant on the Peruvian anchovy fishery, so disruptions there ripple through global supplement pricing and availability. Retail prices have climbed in recent years, and consumers have responded by changing their purchasing habits.
Raw fish oil material costs more than doubled from $4.48 per kg in 2022 to $11.12 per kg by the end of 2023. Retail fish oil products currently sell about 3% above last year's prices, and the outlook for further increases remains uncertain.
The players
Peru's Ministry of Production
The Peruvian government ministry responsible for regulating the country's fishing industry and setting seasonal catch quotas.
The details
A super El Niño event raised sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific by more than 3°C. The warming stunted phytoplankton growth, which anchoveta feed on, and pushed the fish into deeper waters, significantly depleting catch volumes.
Timeline
2023: Peru canceled an entire anchovy fishing season and raw material costs rose.
2024: Fish oil prices rose 8% to 10%, and more than 4 million U.S. consumers left the category.
2026: The first anchovy season closed early with 25% of the quota caught.
October 2026: Peru's Ministry of Production announced no second anchovy season.
Second half of 2027: The anchovy biomass is expected to stabilize.
Culture Shift
The 2023 cancellation of an entire Peruvian anchovy season during a super El Niño established the pattern now repeating in 2026. Consumers who left the fish oil category in 2024 returned once prices fell, showing how quickly supplement demand responds to cost swings.
Fish oil prices are expected to rise another 8% to 10% in the coming quarters, which means supplement purchases will likely cost more. Shoppers comparing fish oil brands may want to watch for price changes before restocking.
The takeaway
Supplement prices are tied to fishery conditions thousands of miles away, so changes in ocean temperatures can reach a household's shopping cart within about 12 to 18 months. Tracking fish oil prices over time can help shoppers plan purchases around these cycles.
What happens next
The anchovy biomass is expected to stabilize by the second half of 2027, and the second anchovy season next year is projected to be very strong.
Further reading
For broader context on what goes into everyday supplements, explore Organic Food coverage.
Source note: This article includes information reported by NutraIngredients.
Live Poll
Would rising supplement prices make you stop buying fish oil?
