IMF Sees Oil Exporters Contracting in 2026
The International Monetary Fund projects Middle East and North Africa oil-exporting economies to shrink while oil importers grow.
Updated on Nov. 10, 2026 in Economic Indicators
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The IMF projects MENAP oil-exporting economies to contract 5.1 per cent in 2026, after growth of 3 per cent in 2025. Oil-importing economies in the region are projected to grow 4.2 per cent in the same year.
Why it matters
The projected 2026 contraction reverses the 2025 growth recorded by oil exporters, while importers continue to expand. The divergence reflects the uneven effects of shifting oil-linked economic conditions across the region.
The IMF projects MENAP real GDP to contract 1.3 per cent in 2026, with Saudi Arabia (3.3 per cent), the UAE (3.9 per cent), Kuwait (16.7 per cent), Qatar (15.6 per cent) and Iraq (16 per cent) all shown contracting. The projections are GDP-weighted and use purchasing-power-parity figures, while the underlying drivers of the contraction are not detailed in the source.
The players
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
The IMF is the Washington-based international lending institution that publishes regular economic outlooks and growth projections for its member countries.
The details
Saudi Arabia recorded 4.6 per cent growth in 2025 and the UAE 6.2 per cent, but both are projected to contract in 2026. Libya posted the strongest 2025 growth at 15.9 per cent, while Pakistan, Egypt and Morocco grew between 3.2 and 4.9 per cent.
Timeline
2025: MENAP oil exporters recorded 3 per cent growth, a baseline for the projected reversal.
2026: MENAP oil exporters are projected to contract 5.1 per cent.
2027: MENAP oil exporters are projected to rebound with 8 per cent growth.
2031: MENAP oil-exporter growth is projected to moderate to 3.1 per cent.
Market Dynamics
The IMF's Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia frames these figures as a region-wide forecast built on GDP-weighted averages. The projected 2026 contraction for oil exporters, followed by an 8 per cent rebound in 2027, marks a sharp reversal from the 3 per cent growth recorded in 2025.
Households in oil-exporting economies could face slower income growth as the projected 2026 contraction takes hold. Residents of oil-importing countries such as Pakistan and Egypt may see continued expansion, though the projections do not address specific price or wage effects.
The takeaway
The projections show that the region's economic outlook depends heavily on whether a country exports or imports oil. Readers tracking regional growth should watch how the 2026 contraction and 2027 rebound compare with later IMF revisions.
Further reading
For broader context on how these figures are tracked, see Economic Indicators.
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