Friedman Sees Deal Over Taiwan Likelier Than War
Geopolitical Futures founder George Friedman says Australia faces a choice about a larger role in the Asia-Pacific region.
Updated on Nov. 8, 2026 in Remote Work
George Friedman, founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures, predicts China and the United States are more likely to reach some sort of deal than go to war over Taiwan. He is scheduled to speak at the UBS Australasia Conference in Sydney on Monday, after November 8, 2026.
Why it matters
Friedman's view that a negotiated arrangement is more probable than armed conflict bears on how investors and businesses across the region assess risk. His remarks also frame Australia's decision on whether to take on a more influential role in the Asia-Pacific.
The source provides no hard numerical data; the forecast is a qualitative judgment comparing the likelihood of a US-China deal over Taiwan with the likelihood of war. The extraction does not indicate the timeframe or conditions under which either outcome is expected.
The players
George Friedman
Founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures, who previously started and ran the private intelligence service Stratfor, which has long been a favourite of the corporate sector.
UBS Australasia Conference
The UBS-hosted investor conference held in Sydney, at which Friedman is scheduled to speak.
The details
Friedman, who previously founded and ran the private intelligence service Stratfor, will speak at the UBS Australasia Conference in Sydney. He also argues Australia must decide whether it will bear the burden of a much more influential role in the Asia-Pacific region.
Timeline
Monday, after November 8, 2026: George Friedman speaks at the UBS Australasia Conference in Sydney.
Roadmap
Friedman's forecast draws on the geopolitical analysis tradition he built at Stratfor, which has long been valued by corporate clients. His view that Australia must weigh a larger Asia-Pacific role places the question within the broader debate over regional security commitments.
For professionals tracking international business conditions, the forecast signals that a negotiated US-China arrangement over Taiwan may be viewed as more likely than conflict. The extraction does not specify any direct effect on employment or workplace arrangements.
The takeaway
Expert geopolitical forecasts like Friedman's can inform how businesses weigh long-term regional risk. Readers should treat such projections as one analyst's judgment rather than settled outcomes.
Further reading
Explore more on Remote Work to see how global business trends like these shape professional life.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Australian Financial Review.
