Cumbre Vieja Collapse Could Trigger Megatsunami
Volcanologist Bill McGuire warns a flank collapse of the Spanish island volcano could send waves toward the U.S. East Coast.
Updated on Nov. 8, 2026 in Geology
Volcanologist Bill McGuire has warned that a collapse of the flank of Cumbre Vieja, a volcano in Spain's Canary Islands, could generate a megatsunami reaching the U.S. East Coast. His computer simulations show waves rising up to 65 feet in a worst-case scenario.
Why it matters
The warning rests on evidence that prehistoric Canary Island tsunamis deposited large boulders along Bahamas coastlines, suggesting such events have happened before. Because a collapse could occur centuries or millennia from now, the risk is a long-range forecast rather than an imminent threat.
Computer simulations by McGuire project waves up to 65 feet in a worst-case flank collapse, reaching the Eastern Seaboard within nine hours. The timing of any collapse remains unknown, with estimates ranging from centuries to millennia.
The players
Bill McGuire
A volcanologist who has warned that a flank collapse of Cumbre Vieja could generate a megatsunami reaching the U.S. East Coast.
The details
A flank collapse would send a massive wall of rock from Cumbre Vieja into the North Atlantic, producing a wave that would travel at jetliner speeds. McGuire expects the flank to eventually crash into the ocean, though researchers have not established when that will happen.
Timeline
Prehistoric period: Canary Island tsunamis carried boulders across the Atlantic to Bahamas coastlines.
Centuries or millennia: A possible future flank collapse and megatsunami could occur.
Seasonal Patterns
The warning builds on geological evidence that prehistoric Canary Island tsunamis deposited boulders along Bahamas coastlines, indicating that such mega-waves have reached the western Atlantic before. The forecast projects a comparable future event rather than describing a recurring seasonal pattern.
Coastal planners and emergency managers could use simulations like these to inform long-range tsunami preparedness. For residents, the forecast carries no immediate action, since any collapse may be centuries or millennia away.
The takeaway
Long-range geological warnings like this one show how evidence from past tsunami deposits can shape forecasts far into the future. Monitoring and modeling of volcanic flanks remain the key tools for assessing risks that may not materialize for generations.
Further reading
Explore more on Geology to see how volcanic flank collapses and ancient tsunami deposits are studied.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Hindustan Times.
