Experts Weigh Middle East Reconstruction Costs
Panelists at TRT World Forum 2026 in Istanbul discussed how regional conflicts could reshape national economies and recovery financing.
Updated on Nov. 7, 2026 in Inflation
Live Poll
Should the U.S. increase financial aid for rebuilding Middle East war zones?
At the TRT World Forum 2026 at the Istanbul Congress Center, economists and policymakers discussed the economic fallout of Middle East conflicts. Former OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria estimated Lebanon would need about $20 billion for reconstruction, Gaza at least $75 billion, and Syria roughly three times the Gaza figure.
Why it matters
Reconstruction costs of this scale would draw on multilateral development banks, the United States, the European Union, Gulf countries and national governments. Prolonged instability could also strain energy supplies in Europe.
Panel estimates put reconstruction needs at about $20 billion for Lebanon and at least $75 billion for Gaza, with Syria roughly three times the Gaza figure. Public debt rose from 63% to 75% of GDP over the past 70 years, while private-sector debt rose from 55% to 155%, and the timeline for financing these needs has not been set.
The players
Angel Gurria
Former OECD Secretary-General who provided the reconstruction cost estimates for Lebanon, Gaza and Syria during the panel.
Tarek Mitri
Lebanese Deputy Prime Minister who said Israel's occupation of Lebanese territory is continuing.
Steve Keen
UCL Honorary Professor who presented figures on the rise in public and private-sector debt relative to GDP.
Fabian Zuleeg
Chief Executive and Chief Economist of the European Policy Centre who took part in the panel.
The details
Former OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria, European Policy Centre Chief Executive and Chief Economist Fabian Zuleeg, UCL Honorary Professor Steve Keen, and Lebanese Deputy Prime Minister Tarek Mitri took part in the panel 'Towards a Rocky Recovery: National Economies After the Wars in the Middle East,' moderated by Auskar Surbakti. Mitri said Israel's occupation of Lebanese territory is continuing.
Timeline
November 7, 2026: The panel was held at TRT World Forum 2026 in Istanbul.
Over the past 70 years: Public debt-to-GDP rose from 63% to 75%, according to Keen.
Market Dynamics
The panel's reconstruction estimates follow the model of multilateral development-bank financing used in past post-conflict recoveries, extending it to several overlapping conflicts at once. Gulf capital is expected to play a significant role, which places the region's recovery within a wider shift in global financing sources.
Higher reconstruction spending and rising debt can shape the economic environment that affects borrowing costs and prices over time. Energy supply disruptions in Europe, if instability persists, could feed directly into household energy bills.
The takeaway
Reconstruction needs in the Middle East are large relative to the debt already carried by many economies, so the pace of conflict and the sources of financing will shape the region's recovery. Readers following the issue can track how multilateral and Gulf funding commitments develop over the coming years.
Further reading
For broader context on how debt and reconstruction spending feed into price pressures, see Inflation.
Live Poll
Should the U.S. increase financial aid for rebuilding Middle East war zones?
