Luanda to Overtake Lagos as Africa's Largest City
A World Bank study projects Luanda will become Africa's biggest metropolis by 2050, with sub-Saharan Africa hosting five megacities.
Updated on Nov. 7, 2026 in Africa
A World Bank and European Commission study projects Luanda will overtake Lagos as Africa's largest metropolis by 2050, with Luanda's population possibly topping 20 million. The analysis measured city sizes using urban sprawl rather than municipal boundaries.
Why it matters
The projections point to rapid urban growth across sub-Saharan Africa, which the World Bank forecasts will reach 823 million urban residents by 2050. Understanding where growth concentrates helps travelers and planners anticipate changing city scales, infrastructure and visitor experiences.
The World Bank projects sub-Saharan Africa's urban population will reach 823 million by 2050, an increase of 320 million, with Luanda possibly topping 20 million. These figures are forecasts, and the study uses an urban-sprawl definition rather than municipal boundaries.
The players
World Bank
The World Bank is an international financial institution that provides loans and research to developing countries, and co-produced this urban population assessment.
European Commission Joint Research Centre
The Joint Research Centre is the European Commission's in-house science service, and it co-authored the megacity study with the World Bank.
Statistics South Africa
Statistics South Africa is the national statistics agency that published the 2022 census figure placing Johannesburg at 4.8 million.
The details
The study measured current city sizes using an extent-of-urban-sprawl definition rather than municipal boundaries. Projections include Bamako growing 80% over 25 years to 7.6 million, Mogadishu rising 64% into the top 15, and Kinshasa, Dar es Salaam and Addis Ababa each housing more than 10 million. Johannesburg is projected to reach 8.9 million and become sub-Saharan Africa's eighth-biggest city, while Cape Town will drop out of the largest rankings.
Timeline
2022: South Africa's census reported Johannesburg at 4.8 million, excluding areas such as Ekurhuleni.
Over the next 25 years: Bamako's population is projected to grow 80%.
2050: Five sub-Saharan megacities are projected, and Luanda is expected to overtake Lagos.
Season Trajectory
The World Bank's projection of 823 million sub-Saharan urban residents by 2050 extends a long-running pattern of African urbanization documented in its regional forecasts. The shifting city rankings show how growth is moving from established hubs such as Lagos toward cities like Luanda and Bamako.
Travelers planning future visits to sub-Saharan capitals should expect larger metropolitan areas and heavier urban traffic as populations grow. Cities like Luanda and Johannesburg may look quite different when visiting decades from now, so check current city guides before booking.
The takeaway
Africa's urban growth is shifting which cities rank as its largest, so travelers should plan around evolving city scales rather than older rankings. Keeping an eye on updated census and World Bank data can help you understand where major urban destinations are heading.
Further reading
Explore more on Africa to see how these growing cities fit into the continent's broader travel landscape.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Moneyweb.
