Heat Linked to 585 Extra Preterm Births in Philippines
Zero Carbon Analytics attributes the excess births to extreme heat during April 2024.
Updated on Nov. 7, 2026 in Pregnancy
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Zero Carbon Analytics estimated that 15 days of extreme heat in April 2024 were linked to 585 additional preterm births in the Philippines. The analysis compared observed heat conditions with normal temperatures across the country.
Why it matters
Preterm birth complications are a leading cause of death among children under 5 globally, so heat-linked increases carry serious health stakes. The World Health Organization has now included preterm birth in a new framework for tracking heat-related impacts on pregnant people, newborns, and children.
Heat index peaked at 127.4 degrees Fahrenheit (53 degrees Celsius) in Iba, Zambales province, while Calabarzon recorded about 100 additional births and Metropolitan Manila and Central Luzon about 80 each. The estimate is a modeled attribution, and the analysis does not detail how each regional figure was validated.
The players
Zero Carbon Analytics
A research organization that produced the estimate linking extreme heat to additional preterm births in the Philippines, India, and Bangladesh.
World Health Organization
The United Nations agency that identifies preterm birth complications as a leading cause of death among children under 5 and has added preterm birth to its heat-impact tracking framework.
The details
The analysis, conducted by Zero Carbon Analytics, quantified preterm births linked to the April 2024 heat wave by comparing observed heat to normal temperatures. It also estimated that 263 Philippine preterm births in April 2024 would not have occurred without human-induced warming.
Timeline
April 2024: Heat wave with 15 days of extreme heat hits the Philippines.
This year (2026): Super El Niño may push some city temperatures to 45 to 50 degrees Celsius.
Health Landscape
The WHO's new framework for tracking heat-related impacts on pregnant people, newborns, and children now explicitly includes preterm birth as a monitored outcome. This study supplies a country-level attribution case that gives the framework concrete figures to track.
Pregnant people in hot regions may face higher risk of early delivery during extreme heat, so staying cool, hydrated, and in air-conditioned spaces during heat waves matters. Anyone pregnant should raise heat exposure concerns with their prenatal care provider.
The takeaway
Heat is now measurable as a driver of preterm birth, which makes heat protection part of prenatal planning. Pregnant people should track local heat warnings and use cooling options during extreme weather.
What happens next
The Climate Change Commission cautioned that temperatures in some cities could climb to between 113 and 122 degrees Fahrenheit (45 to 50 degrees Celsius) during this year's Super El Niño.
Further reading
Explore more on Pregnancy and how environmental heat shapes maternal and newborn health.
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