Renewables Surge Past 4,800 GW by 2031
The International Energy Agency projects emerging economies outside China will match advanced economies in renewable capacity additions over the next five years.
Updated on Nov. 6, 2026 in Energy
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The International Energy Agency's annual renewable energy outlook forecasts almost 4,800 GW of global renewable capacity additions between 2026 and 2031. Emerging and developing economies outside China are expected to add about 1,100 GW over that period, matching advanced economies for the first time.
Why it matters
Soaring gas and oil prices in 2026, driven in part by the US-Iran war's disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, are pushing emerging economies toward renewables. Projects awaiting grid connection worldwide rose 60% over the past year, a constraint that could slow deployment.
The IEA outlook is a forecast rather than observed deployment, and it projects China adding around 2,550 GW of renewable capacity over the period. Projects awaiting grid connection worldwide now equal four times the wind and solar capacity connected in the same period, and how quickly that backlog clears remains unclear.
The players
International Energy Agency
The Paris-based intergovernmental body that publishes widely cited annual energy analysis and forecasts for governments and markets worldwide.
The details
India is the world's second-fastest deployer of renewables, and the IEA raised its biofuels forecast by 40% from last year's report amid higher fuel-blending mandates. Renewable energy is expected to meet 6% of global transport energy demand by 2031.
Timeline
2025: China's share of global renewable growth reached 60%.
2026: Gas and oil prices soared amid the US-Iran war.
2026 to 2031: Global renewable capacity forecast to grow by 4,800 GW.
2031: China's forecast share of global renewable growth falls to 53%.
Market Landscape
China's share of global renewable growth reached 60% in 2025 and is projected to fall to 53% by 2031 as other regions expand. The shift reflects emerging economies outside China beginning to match advanced economies' capacity additions.
Faster renewable buildout could eventually lower reliance on imported oil and gas for power and transport, which matters for consumers exposed to fuel price swings. Grid connection delays, however, could slow how quickly new capacity reaches homes and businesses.
The takeaway
Renewable growth is shifting geographically, with emerging economies poised to add capacity at a pace comparable to wealthy nations. Grid connection capacity is becoming the binding constraint on how fast that growth reaches consumers.
Further reading
For broader context on how these forecasts fit into the global transition, see Energy coverage on Wisevoter.
Source note: This article includes information reported by The Edge Malaysia.
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