Heat Feedback Loop Makes Heatwaves 10% Hotter
Researchers link dry soil, high pressure and extreme heat in a three-way loop that climate models do not fully capture.
Updated on Nov. 6, 2026 in Severe Weather
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Scientists have identified a feedback loop among dry soil, high-pressure systems and extreme heat that amplifies heatwaves when temperatures climb high enough. The effect makes extreme heatwaves about 10 per cent hotter than they would otherwise be.
Why it matters
Because climate model projections do not fully account for the feedback, heatwave risk may be underestimated in regions where it applies. Mid-latitude areas such as Europe may face more intense heatwaves than previously expected.
The feedback effect adds roughly 10 per cent to extreme heatwave temperatures, according to the research findings. In the UK in 2022, temperatures passed 40°C (104°F) for the first time in recorded history, but it remains unclear how much of future heat extremes the feedback will drive given models' current shortcomings.
The players
Kai Kornhuber
A researcher at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria who contributed to the study of heatwave feedback mechanisms.
Dim Coumou
A climate scientist at the Free University of Amsterdam who contributed to research on the three-way heatwave feedback loop.
The details
Высокое давление allows more solar radiation to reach the surface, heating the land, and higher temperatures dry soils faster, removing the cooling effect of evaporation. Dry soil in turn helps sustain the high-pressure systems, closing the loop. Researchers note the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave far outstripped climate model projections.
Timeline
2021: Pacific Northwest heatwave exceeded climate model projections.
2022: UK temperatures exceeded 40°C for the first time.
Coming decades: Europe expected to face more intense heatwaves.
Big Picture
The 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave already exceeded climate model projections by a wide margin, and this feedback loop offers a mechanistic explanation for that gap. The finding suggests the models used to plan for heat risk in Europe and other mid-latitude regions may need revision.
Residents in heat-exposed regions should expect that official heat forecasts may underestimate the peak temperatures possible during prolonged dry, high-pressure conditions. Planning for cooling, water access and heat-health precautions should account for the possibility of heatwaves running hotter than historical records suggest.
The takeaway
Heat risk is likely higher than many models currently project, so preparation should assume that extreme temperatures may exceed past records. Treat heat advisories seriously even when forecasts appear to be within historical norms.
Further reading
For broader context on extreme heat patterns, see the Severe Weather section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by New Scientist.
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