EU Carbon Rules Could Shift Shipping to Africa
A study presented in Brussels links EU emissions trading to changes in transhipment services at European ports.
Updated on Nov. 6, 2026 in Transportation
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Assarmatori presented a study at the European Parliament identifying changes potentially linked to the EU Emissions Trading System in 41 of 86 shipping services examined. The findings point to calls shifting from European hubs to competing ports in third countries, including increased investment in North African terminals.
Why it matters
Transhipment is highly sensitive to operating cost differences between hubs, so emissions pricing can tip cargo toward ports outside the EU. Anti-evasion measures can counter intermediate calls designed to circumvent the rules but cannot prevent operations from relocating outside the EU.
The study estimates €1.43-3.60 billion in equivalent investment in required capacity and 2,005-4,431 jobs supported by associated activities. These figures are scenario-based, built on the assumption that 7.5-15% of at-risk volumes relocate.
The players
Assarmatori
Assarmatori is an Italian shipping industry association that commissioned and presented the study on EU emissions rules and transhipment.
Peter Liese
Peter Liese is a German member of the European Parliament who promoted the compromise proposal on ETS adjustment for transhipment.
Giovanni Satta
Giovanni Satta is an associate professor at the University of Genoa who conducted the study on transhipment and the EU Emissions Trading System.
The details
Gioia Tauro, Marsaxlokk, Sines and Taranto were the four transhipment ports examined in the study presented on 4 November 2026. The study was conducted by Giovanni Satta, associate professor at the University of Genoa, and proposes a compromise on ETS adjustment for transhipment promoted by MEP Peter Liese.
Timeline
4 November 2026: Study presented at the European Parliament in Brussels.
The week before the workshop: MEP Peter Liese promoted the compromise proposal.
Roadmap
The EU Emissions Trading System was extended to the maritime sector, making European transhipment hubs subject to carbon pricing that competing ports in third countries may not face. The Assarmatori study suggests this cost gap is already shifting some services toward North African terminals.
If transhipment volumes move out of European ports, the freight costs and service options for shippers using those hubs could change. Importers and exporters relying on European transhipment connections may see routing adjustments over time.
The takeaway
Carbon pricing on shipping creates cost differences between ports that can reroute cargo faster than policy can respond. Businesses tracking supply chains should watch how transhipment patterns shift as the ETS takes further effect.
Further reading
For broader context on shifting trade routes, see the Transportation section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by TrasportoEuropa.
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