ETFs Could Overtake Mutual Funds in Assets
Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart projects ETFs may surpass mutual funds in total assets under management within two to three years.
Updated on Nov. 6, 2026 in Investing
Live Poll
Would you put any of your savings into Bitcoin ETFs?
Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart projected that exchange-traded funds could surpass mutual funds in total assets under management within two to three years. ETFs accounted for 40.21% of total fund assets as of September 2026, with a rolling 12-month growth rate of 3.74%.
Why it matters
ETFs have been expanding faster than their historical average since the 2020 COVID market bottom, which reached 2.78% on a rolling 12-month basis. A shift in dominance from mutual funds to ETFs would reshape how a large share of global investment capital is held and traded.
ETFs held 40.21% of total fund assets in September 2026, with a rolling 12-month growth rate of 3.74% versus a 2.78% historical average since 2020. Projections for the 50% milestone range from September 2028 to December 2029, and the timing depends on whether current growth rates hold.
The players
James Seyffart
James Seyffart is a Bloomberg analyst who covers exchange-traded funds and crypto investment products.
Ecoinometrics
Ecoinometrics is an analytics firm that produces research estimating the market effects of Bitcoin ETF and corporate purchases.
The details
Seyffart based his projection on the trend of ETF growth since summer 2026 and used a chart to show ETF share of total fund assets. Separately, Ecoinometrics estimated that a 10,000 BTC inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs corresponds to a 3.2% boost in monthly Bitcoin returns, compared with about 0.7% for the same amount bought by public companies.
Timeline
September 2026: ETFs reached 40.21% of total fund assets.
November 1-5, 2026: Bitcoin ETFs recorded mostly outflows.
November 4, 2026: Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $74.6 million.
September 2028: ETFs could reach 50% of total fund assets if current growth continues.
Market Dynamics
ETF growth since the 2020 COVID market bottom has averaged 2.78% on a rolling 12-month basis, and the 3.74% rate recorded in September 2026 places current expansion above that long-run pace. That acceleration is what makes a crossover with mutual funds within two to three years a live projection rather than a distant scenario.
Investors holding mutual funds may see their share of fund allocations shift as ETFs gain assets, which can affect fee structures and portfolio rebalancing decisions. Bitcoin ETF flows have swung sharply in early November 2026, including $869.82 million in net outflows, which highlights volatility for anyone allocating to crypto products.
The takeaway
ETF growth outpacing its long-run average suggests the shift in fund ownership may continue, so investors comparing vehicles should weigh fees, liquidity, and tax treatment rather than assuming one structure will dominate. Monitoring flows over several months is more informative than reacting to any single day's movement.
Further reading
For more on how these vehicles fit into long-term portfolios, explore the Investing section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by AMBCrypto.
Live Poll
Would you put any of your savings into Bitcoin ETFs?
