Census Projects Population Declines in Four U.S. Territories
Updated Census Bureau estimates show fertility and outmigration driving long-term shrinkage across American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Updated on Nov. 5, 2026 in Immigration
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The U.S. Census Bureau updated its International Database with long-range population estimates and projections for four U.S. territories and 21 countries. The update is the first since 2017 to include American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands and the U.S. Virgin Islands, all of which are projected to shrink by 2100.
Why it matters
Falling fertility and persistent outmigration are reshaping the populations of the territories, with more people leaving than arriving in each since 2000. The projections give planners a long-range baseline for the economic and public-service implications of shrinking communities.
American Samoa's 2026 net migration rate was -25.1 per 1,000, and the Northern Mariana Islands' was -11.2 per 1,000. Projected 2100 declines are 61% for American Samoa and 17% for the Northern Mariana Islands, though the basis for these projections is not detailed in the source extraction.
The players
U.S. Census Bureau
The federal statistical agency that maintains the International Database and produced the updated long-range population estimates and projections.
The details
Census Bureau demographers integrated the latest fertility, mortality and migration data into the update, which adjusted some countries' estimates for crisis-related deaths. The U.S. Virgin Islands saw its sharpest decline between 2010 and 2020, a period linked to the shutdown of a large oil refinery and the 2017 hurricanes Irma and Maria.
Timeline
2000: Northern Mariana Islands population decline begins and outmigration starts across the territories.
2010: American Samoa's population begins falling.
2010-2020: U.S. Virgin Islands experiences its most rapid population decline.
March 2020: COVID-19 pandemic reduces Guam's net outmigration due to travel restrictions.
2026: Latest fertility and net migration rates are recorded for the territories.
Big Picture
The 2017 International Database update set the prior baseline, and this release extends it to four territories for the first time. The shrinking trajectories sit against a total fertility rate of 2.1, the level needed for long-term population replacement.
Residents and planners in the affected territories face a projected long-term shrinkage of their populations, which bears on public services and local economies. Readers tracking the shifts can rely on the Census Bureau's updated estimates as a baseline for these projections.
The takeaway
Demographic trends in U.S. territories are driven by falling fertility and persistent outmigration rather than any single event. Tracking these long-range projections helps readers understand how population shifts can reshape communities over decades.
Further reading
Explore more on Immigration to see how migration patterns shape population trends across the globe.
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