Offshore Wind Forecasts Cut 40% as Oil Gas Surges
Developers are expanding existing offshore wind projects rather than starting new ones, as oil and gas posts a strong 2026.
Updated on Nov. 2, 2026 in Oil and Gas
Live Poll
Do you think energy costs for your household will get better or worse over the next few years?
Forecasts for offshore wind have been revised down 40% due to project and timeline slippage and developer withdrawals, according to Westwood Global Energy Group analyst Peter Lloyd-Williams at the IMCA conference in Antwerp. Oil and gas is expected to have a bumper year in 2026.
Why it matters
Rising inflation, interest rates and return-on-investment demands have created challenges for offshore wind, slowing the pace of new build-out. Shifting capital toward established energy sources affects how quickly Europe and other regions can expand low-carbon electricity supply.
Offshore wind holds 56% of offshore energy spending, ahead of oil and gas at 42% and carbon capture at 2%. Offshore energy CAPEX is projected to rise from $500 billion in the prior five-year period to $744 billion in the next.
The players
Peter Lloyd-Williams
Analyst at Westwood Global Energy Group who spoke on the offshore wind outlook at the IMCA conference.
Tinne Van der Straeten
WindEurope representative who projected offshore wind will build 6GW this year.
The details
Developers are expanding existing offshore wind projects rather than starting new developments, and some vessels sit idle because not enough farms are being built. Governments are showing more willingness to provide financial support, while the supply chain is ready to build 50GW of offshore wind a year.
Timeline
2026: oil and gas expected to have a bumper year.
Market Dynamics
Offshore energy capital spending is projected to rise from $500 billion to $744 billion across consecutive five-year periods, even as offshore wind forecasts have been cut 40%. Oil and gas holds 42% of total energy spending, placing it second only to offshore wind's 56% share of offshore energy spending.
Consumers and energy buyers may see the effects of slower offshore wind expansion through the pace of new low-carbon capacity coming online. Households tracking energy costs should watch how sustained oil and gas investment influences fuel prices.
The takeaway
Investment priorities are shifting as offshore wind forecasts fall while capital spending rises, so energy trends can change quickly. Tracking where capital flows gives a clearer picture of future energy supply than headline targets alone.
Further reading
Explore more Oil and Gas coverage for context on how fossil fuel investment is shifting this year.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Maritime Journal.
Live Poll
Do you think energy costs for your household will get better or worse over the next few years?
