Critical Minerals Shortages Emerge as CEO Issue
Boston Consulting Group says companies underestimate supply risks in critical minerals and points to Kazakhstan's untapped potential.
Updated on Nov. 2, 2026 in Business Strategy
A Boston Consulting Group study argues that industrial companies underestimate the risks of critical mineral shortages, focusing mainly on raw material costs and direct suppliers. The study says Kazakhstan can strengthen its position in global critical minerals supply chains.
Why it matters
The study frames mineral supply as a leadership-level risk rather than a procurement issue, citing gaps in how companies assess processing, ownership structure and supplier exposure. It positions Kazakhstan as a possible source for materials that global manufacturers may increasingly need.
A BCG proprietary forecasting model projects 2040 demand for rare earth elements, graphite, copper, and lithium at 120-250% of supply. Around 65% of Kazakhstan's territory remains geologically underexplored, leaving its full mineral potential unverified.
The players
Boston Consulting Group
A global management consulting firm that published the study on critical mineral shortages.
OECD
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, which identified the raw materials Kazakhstan could supply to the EU.
The details
The study identified three gaps in companies' risk assessment: an emphasis on raw material cost, analysis limited to direct suppliers, and concentration on extraction without sufficient attention to processing and ownership structure. Kazakhstan holds significant explored reserves of copper, chromium, tungsten, lithium, tantalum and rare earth elements.
Timeline
2040: projected demand for key minerals could reach 120-250% of supply
Market Landscape
The EU's critical raw materials list defines the 34 inputs European industry treats as strategically essential, and the study measures how much of that list Kazakhstan could realistically supply. The analysis places Kazakhstan within a wider competition among producers to secure these inputs for manufacturers.
For consumers, the study signals that the cost and availability of products relying on rare earths, lithium, copper and graphite may be shaped by supply constraints rather than purely by raw material prices. Companies that under-manage these risks may face disruptions passed on through pricing and product availability.
The takeaway
Companies that look beyond raw material cost to examine processing capacity, ownership structure and indirect supplier exposure are better positioned to manage future shortages. The study suggests this assessment belongs at the CEO level rather than within procurement alone.
Further reading
Explore more on Business Strategy to see how companies are rethinking supply risk at the leadership level.
