Global Resource Competition Reshapes Commodity Markets
A Ninety One report says constrained supply and geopolitical fragmentation, not demand growth, now drive global energy, metal, and agricultural markets.
Updated on Nov. 1, 2026 in Investing
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Global investment firm Ninety One has published a report on worldwide competition for energy, metals, and agricultural resources. The firm says today's commodity market is shaped more by constrained supply, geopolitical fragmentation, and regional resource security than by demand growth.
Why it matters
Energy, metals, and food inputs feed into costs across many economies, so shifts in these markets can ripple into prices and investment decisions. The report points to conflict, electrification demand, and years of underinvestment as underlying drivers rather than short-term swings.
Proposed US data-centre projects represent about 200 gigawatts of electricity demand, while Chilean copper output has fallen to its lowest level in six years. The report does not quantify how long these pressures will persist.
The players
Ninety One
Ninety One is a global investment firm that publishes market research and commodity analysis for institutional and professional investors.
The details
The report describes the Strait of Hormuz as closed and says global oil inventories have fallen by roughly one billion barrels since the conflict began. Copper stocks have risen sharply as material is redirected into the US amid tariff uncertainty, and central banks are buying more gold and diversifying where they hold reserves.
Timeline
Since the beginning of the Middle East conflict, global oil inventories have declined by roughly one billion barrels.
Over the past decade, producers prioritized cash flow over growth, constraining investment in new supply.
Market Dynamics
The report contrasts the current supply-constrained environment with the China-led commodity super cycle of the 2000s, when demand growth was the dominant force. Today's pressures instead stem from geopolitical disruption and years of restrained producer investment.
Investors holding commodity-linked assets may see price volatility as supply constraints persist and inventories are rebuilt. The report suggests food and fertilizer costs could remain elevated into 2027, which may affect household budgets.
The takeaway
Commodity prices are increasingly shaped by supply limits and geopolitical risk rather than demand alone. Investors and households alike may benefit from watching inventories, fertilizer costs, and energy infrastructure as signals of where pressure is building.
Further reading
For broader context on how markets respond to these pressures, explore our Investing coverage.
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Do you expect your household's energy and grocery costs to rise over the next year?
