Goldman Links Business AI Use to Lower Employment
A new client note finds a statistical connection between regular business AI adoption and weaker job growth in nonmanufacturing sectors.
Updated on Oct. 28, 2026 in Employment
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Goldman Sachs released a client note identifying a statistical relationship between regular business AI use and higher unemployment in nonmanufacturing industries. The report notes weaker employment growth in these sectors when compared to labor market averages from 2015-19.
Why it matters
While AI investment is expected to increase productivity and total profits, this analysis suggests that short-term labor market disruptions could weigh on general economic activity. The note explicitly states that these findings do not establish a causal link between AI use and labor market outcomes.
A separate September analysis found that a 10% AI exposure measure correlates with 0.1 percentage point lower annual U.S. headcount growth. Call-center employment in the U.S. was found to be 39% below trend, while Canada saw a 33% decline and Germany a 27% decline.
The players
Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs is a leading global investment banking, securities, and investment management firm that provides a wide range of financial services.
The details
The analysis compared the latest three-month labor market averages with data from 2015-19 to evaluate the impact of business AI use. By focusing on industry-level adoption, researchers identified a trend of reduced headcount growth that aligns with findings from a previous September 2026 occupational exposure study.
Timeline
2015-19: Baseline period for labor measure comparisons.
September 2026: Publication of separate Goldman analysis on occupational AI exposure.
October 26, 2026: Publication of Goldman Sachs client note.
Macro View
This report mirrors the structural labor shifts seen during the 1990s and 2000s office automation era, where technology adoption initially created measurable employment friction. Current trends suggest that, much like past cycles, initial disruption may precede long-term productivity shifts.
Readers working in industries with high AI exposure may face slower headcount growth or changing job requirements as companies automate specific functions. These shifts could ultimately impact long-term wage growth and the availability of certain entry-level positions in sectors like call centers.
The takeaway
While AI is positioned to drive significant corporate profitability, the current data highlights the potential for near-term labor market volatility. Workers should focus on developing skills that complement, rather than mimic, current automated business processes.
Further reading
Learn more about labor market shifts in our Employment section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by TokenPost.
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