EU Fertility Rate Remains Below Replacement Level
The European Union recorded 1.34 live births per woman in 2024, continuing a long-term trend of declining birth rates.
Updated on Oct. 27, 2026 in Pregnancy
Live Poll
Do you believe the long-term trend of declining birth rates in the EU is worsening?
In 2024, the European Union recorded a total fertility rate of 1.34 live births per woman. This figure reflects a persistent demographic trend, as rates have remained below the 2.10 natural replacement level for two decades.
Why it matters
The sustained gap between current fertility rates and the natural replacement threshold highlights a shift in European population dynamics over the last twenty years. Understanding these regional variations provides insight into the varying demographic challenges facing member nations.
The EU-wide fertility rate of 1.34 in 2024 is measured across 1,165 NUTS level 3 statistical regions. While 61.3% of these regions reported rates above the EU average, 16 Spanish regions and 5 Italian regions fell below the 1.00 births per woman threshold.
The players
European Union
The European Union is a political and economic union of 27 member states that serves as the central administrative body for monitoring regional demographic statistics.
The details
Data from the 1,165 NUTS level 3 statistical regions shows a wide variance, with 14 regions in France and Bulgaria reaching at least 1.75 births per woman. Conversely, many areas in Spain, Poland, Italy, Greece, Germany, and Lithuania report rates under 1.00, illustrating deep geographic divisions.
Timeline
The time series for total fertility rate collection began in 2001.
The fertility rate has remained below the 2.10 natural replacement rate throughout the period from 2004 to 2024.
The EU recorded a total fertility rate of 1.34 live births per woman in 2024.
Culture Shift
This decline follows the long-term patterns observed since the implementation of the European Union's NUTS level 3 regional classification system, which provides the framework for these population studies. The data highlights a demographic departure from historical norms as more regions fall significantly below replacement levels.
The regional variation in birth rates may influence future planning for family services and childcare infrastructure in specific European locales. Residents in areas with the lowest recorded rates may see shifts in local policy aimed at supporting demographic growth.
The takeaway
The persistent gap between current fertility rates and the replacement threshold suggests that demographic pressures will remain a primary focus for regional planning across the continent. Families and policymakers should consider how these long-term trends will shape community services and social infrastructure over the coming years.
Further reading
Learn more about global demographic trends in the Pregnancy section.
Live Poll
Do you believe the long-term trend of declining birth rates in the EU is worsening?
