Emerging Markets Forecast Massive Online Spending Surge
A new study predicts 834 million new online buyers and $8.7 trillion in spending growth by 2036.
Updated on Oct. 27, 2026 in Shopping — General
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A joint study from World Data Lab and EBANX forecasts that emerging markets will add $8.7 trillion in online spending by 2036. This growth is driven by 834 million new online buyers, despite relatively low projected credit card adoption.
Why it matters
The shift highlights how digital payment infrastructure is outpacing traditional credit systems in emerging economies. As more adults enter the middle class, merchants are increasingly relying on alternative payment rails to reach consumers who lack conventional cards.
Projections indicate that 834 million new online buyers will enter emerging markets, yet only 281 million are expected to acquire credit cards by 2036. Currently, cardless adults account for 55% of all online spending in these regions.
The players
World Data Lab
This research organization focuses on global demographic trends and consumer spending models using World Bank data.
EBANX
This company specializes in payment processing solutions designed to connect merchants with consumers in emerging global markets.
The details
The study models spending behaviors across 184 countries, noting that consumers aged 45 and older will drive 51% of online spending growth. To accommodate this, merchants are prioritizing local digital payment methods over credit card integration to capture the expanding market.
Timeline
2012: EBANX was founded in Brazil.
2026: EBANX established a new technology and regulatory headquarters in Singapore.
2026-2036: The forecast period for middle-class expansion and online spending growth.
Culture Shift
The report illustrates a fundamental movement away from legacy financial instruments toward digital-first payment ecosystems. This trend mirrors a broader societal shift where mobile infrastructure bypasses traditional banking models to facilitate global retail participation.
For global shoppers and merchants, this signifies a move toward more diverse digital payment options at checkout. Consumers in these regions should expect an increase in localized payment apps that simplify transactions without requiring traditional credit cards.
The takeaway
The rise of emerging markets as a primary driver of global e-commerce suggests that payment innovation is now the most critical factor for retail success. Businesses looking to grow internationally should prioritize digital infrastructure that supports local, non-credit payment methods.
Further reading
Explore more trends in consumer behavior within the Shopping — General section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by The Manila times.
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