Daishin Securities Forecasts KOSPI Amid US Midterm Elections
Market analysts evaluate potential KOSPI performance trajectories based on emerging US midterm election outcome scenarios.
Updated on Oct. 26, 2026 in Economic Indicators
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Daishin Securities predicts the KOSPI could reach 6,700 points in the fourth quarter of 2026 if Democrats sweep the US midterm elections. The forecast utilizes 200,000 simulations to assess how different legislative configurations in the United States might impact global markets.
Why it matters
The analysis suggests that a Democratic sweep could stabilize Treasury yields and the dollar, whereas a Republican victory might exert short-term downward pressure on the domestic stock market due to anticipated fiscal expansion.
Daishin Securities projects KOSPI earnings per share to increase by 34% next year. The firm anticipates a potential KOSPI index peak of 6,700 points under a Democratic sweep compared to a potential lower bound of 4,950 points under Republican control.
The players
Daishin Securities
This is a South Korean financial services company that provides investment banking and brokerage services.
The details
The firm accounted for historical KOSPI performance following nine previous US midterm elections and current prediction market data, noting that the S&P 500 has risen in every midterm year since 1950. Analysts expect the US 10-year Treasury yield to rise by 15-30 basis points in a Red Sweep scenario.
Timeline
1950 marked the start of S&P 500 midterm election data tracking.
September 1, 2026, saw a Polymarket Blue Sweep probability of 50.5%.
October 24, 2026, recorded a Polymarket Blue Sweep probability of 66.5%.
November 3, 2026, is the scheduled date for the US midterm elections.
Q4 2026 serves as the forecast window for the KOSPI index performance.
Macro View
This forecast anchors current KOSPI volatility to the historical S&P 500 midterm election performance since 1950. The model follows a pattern established by past electoral cycles to project how shifting US political power shapes international equity indices.
Investors tracking the KOSPI may see significant index fluctuations depending on the outcome of the US midterm elections. Changes to projected earnings and Treasury yields may directly impact portfolio strategies for those with exposure to South Korean markets.
The takeaway
Market participants should monitor US legislative results closely as they historically influence global capital flows and interest rate environments. Diversifying portfolios ahead of high-probability political events remains a common strategy to mitigate volatility risks.
Further reading
For broader trends in global market movements, visit the Economic Indicators section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by 조선일보.
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