UN Report Projects Warming of up to 2.8°C by 2100
The annual Emissions Gap Report warns that current global policies are insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement goals.
Updated on Oct. 21, 2026 in Environmental
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The United Nations Environment Programme released its 2026 Emissions Gap Report, projecting that global temperatures will rise by 2.6°C to 2.8°C by the end of the century. Global greenhouse gas emissions remained near record levels in 2025, mirroring those seen in 2024.
Why it matters
Current climate policies and national commitments are failing to curb emissions, leaving the world on track to breach the 1.5°C threshold. Reaching that goal now requires an annual emissions reduction of approximately six percent through 2035.
The world has already warmed by 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, with G20 countries responsible for 75 percent of all emissions. To return warming to 1.5°C by 2100, projections suggest temperatures must first peak at roughly 1.8°C by 2050.
The players
United Nations Environment Programme
This is the leading global environmental authority that sets the global environmental agenda and promotes the coherent implementation of the environmental dimension of sustainable development.
Group of Twenty
This is an international forum for the governments and central bank governors from 19 countries and the European Union, representing the world's largest economies.
The details
Emissions in 2025 rose in the United States, Indonesia, and China, while falling in India, Russia, and the European Union. In the United States, the increase of 133 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent was driven by a rebound in coal-fired power and higher electricity demand.
Timeline
2024: Greenhouse gas emissions reached near-record levels.
2025: Annual global greenhouse gas emissions remained stable at record levels.
November 9-20, 2026: COP31 climate summit takes place in Antalya, Türkiye.
2035: Annual emissions reduction target date.
2100: Projected timeframe for end-of-century global temperature increase.
The Big Picture
The report demonstrates that global climate efforts are lagging behind the foundational benchmarks set by the Paris Agreement. This disconnect highlights a systemic failure to align national emission pathways with the international commitment to limit long-term warming.
The report suggests that without immediate and significant shifts in energy generation, extreme weather patterns linked to rising temperatures will become more frequent. The shift toward higher electricity demand and coal-fired power highlights the tension between economic growth and necessary decarbonization.
The takeaway
Limiting warming to 1.5°C requires an unprecedented annual reduction of emissions by six percent over the next decade. Success depends on whether major economies can move away from coal-fired power and transition toward more sustainable energy sources.
What happens next
The COP31 climate summit is scheduled to be held in Antalya, Türkiye, from November 9 to November 20, 2026, where nations are expected to address emission reduction strategies.
Further reading
For more on the current state of climate science, read our Environmental coverage.
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