Thwaites Glacier Melts Faster Than Previous Projections
New research shows the massive Antarctic glacier faces a significant risk of unpinning from its ridges this century.
Updated on Oct. 20, 2026 in Environmental
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The Thwaites Glacier in Western Antarctica is melting at an accelerated rate as warm ocean water circulates to its base. Experts warn there is a 60 per cent chance the glacier will unpin from its stabilizing ridges before the end of the century.
Why it matters
The glacier is critical to global stability because its collapse could contribute to rising sea levels. With the Southern Ocean absorbing 90 per cent of man-made heat, the glacier's geometry makes it increasingly vulnerable to total loss.
The International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration analyzed the glacier's stability over seven years using computer models. The study accounted for the Southern Ocean's heat absorption and the glacier's proximity to underwater ridges.
The players
International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration
This international research team spent seven years investigating the state and stability of the Antarctic glacier.
The details
Researchers found that warm water from the Southern Ocean is circulating to the base of the glacier, which is twice the size of Tasmania. Potential solutions include building an $80 billion sea-anchored barrier that would require $1 billion in annual maintenance.
Timeline
Global temperatures may exceed the 1.5C Paris Agreement limit within the next three years.
The glacier has a 60 per cent chance of unpinning from its ridges by the end of this century.
Global sea levels are projected to rise up to 30mm by 2100 due to glacier retreat.
The Big Picture
This finding marks a major update to existing climate models by demonstrating how specific glacier geometry interacts with ocean heat. The study challenges previous stability assumptions and emphasizes the difficulty of meeting the Paris Agreement temperature goal.
Rising sea levels by 30mm by 2100 could necessitate significant long-term shifts in coastal infrastructure and flood defense planning. While immediate impacts are localized to Antarctica, the global rise in sea levels will eventually affect flood insurance and real estate planning.
The takeaway
The instability of the Thwaites Glacier serves as a critical indicator for the pace of global climate change. Implementing large-scale engineering solutions remains a costly and unproven strategy for preventing major sea-level shifts.
Further reading
Learn more about the latest research in Environmental studies.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Kids News.
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