El Niño Drives Widespread Amazon Rainforest Wildfires
Extreme drought conditions have triggered uncontrolled fires across the Amazon, leading to severe smoke levels in Manaus.
Updated on Oct. 20, 2026 in Environmental
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Intensified drought conditions linked to El Niño have sparked an surge of wildfires across the Amazon rainforest. In Manaus, heavy smoke and hazardous air quality have forced the suspension of local schools and sports activities.
Why it matters
The Amazon is highly vulnerable to fire because its native vegetation has not evolved to withstand frequent burning. Persistent drought conditions have dried out the forest floor, allowing agricultural fires to easily spread beyond their intended boundaries.
Satellite analysis has identified 50 to 70 uncontrolled fires in the Santarém area alone. Meanwhile, Manaus experienced significant rainfall deficits, falling 95 percent below normal in August and 60 percent below normal in September.
The players
NASA
The United States government agency responsible for the civilian space program as well as aeronautics and space research.
The details
Human activity is the primary cause of these fires, with controlled agricultural burns escaping into dry forest areas. Satellite imagery captured by NASA's Aqua satellite confirms extensive smoke plumes rising from fires near the Amazon River as fires spread beneath the canopy.
Timeline
August 2026: Manaus rainfall was 95 percent below normal.
September 2026: Increased fires and smoke began to emerge across the Amazon.
October 12, 2026: Manaus air quality reached severe levels due to smoke.
November-December 2026: Wildfire risk is expected to expand to northern Amazon regions.
August-September 2027: Wildfire risk is projected to reach its peak in southern Amazon regions.
The Big Picture
By comparing current wildfire activity against NASA's FIRMS data, researchers have found that official records may be significantly undercounting total ignitions. This discrepancy complicates efforts to manage forest health as the reliance on traditional monitoring tools evolves.
The spread of these fires and subsequent smoke plumes could lead to long-term changes in regional air quality and agricultural output. Improved satellite tracking of subsurface fires may eventually lead to better early-warning systems for vulnerable tropical regions.
The takeaway
The current Amazon fires underscore how quickly drought-stressed ecosystems can become fire-prone when agricultural burning is left unchecked. Residents in affected regions should monitor air quality alerts closely and prioritize indoor activities during peak smoke events.
What happens next
Seasonal rains are expected to provide relief by December 2026 or January 2027.
Further reading
Learn more about the latest climate research and trends in the Environmental section.
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Are local resources in your area sufficiently prepared to manage increasing wildfire risks from changing weather?
