Goldman Sachs Predicts Music Industry Revenue Growth
The 2026 Music in the Air report forecasts significant gains driven by streaming and AI-related innovations.
Updated on Oct. 16, 2026 in Music — General
Live Poll
Is the growth of AI-generated music likely to harm the long-term earnings of human recording artists?
Goldman Sachs released its latest Music in the Air report, projecting total recorded music revenue to reach $56.1 billion by 2035. The analysis suggests a 5.9 percent compound annual growth rate for the industry over the next decade.
Why it matters
The report highlights a shifting landscape where AI tools present both a 10 percent revenue upside and significant risks of market share dilution for record labels. Investors are advised to favor distributors and live entertainment over traditional rights owners due to these structural changes.
Subscription streaming rightsholder revenue is projected to grow at a 7.1 percent compound annual growth rate through 2035. Combined recorded, publishing, and live revenue is forecasted to see a 5.8 percent CAGR during the same period.
The players
Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs is a leading global investment banking, securities, and investment management firm that provides financial services to corporations and governments.
The details
Digital streaming providers plan to boost revenue by expanding into developing markets and transitioning to per-user monetization models for multi-user plans. Meanwhile, the report warns that AI-generated content may divert crucial royalty payments away from human intellectual property.
Timeline
October 16, 2026: Goldman Sachs released the Music in the Air report.
2022: Goldman Sachs last updated its recorded music forecast prior to this release.
Through 2035: The period covered by the report's growth and AI impact projections.
Industry Dynamics
This forecast signals a departure from traditional revenue models, emphasizing the shift toward AI integration and granular monetization strategies. It positions digital streaming platforms as key growth engines while highlighting the competitive threat generative AI poses to legacy label structures.
Consumers should expect digital streaming services to phase out flat-rate monthly plans in favor of per-user fees to increase revenue. These pricing adjustments will likely impact household budgets as multi-user access becomes more expensive.
The takeaway
The music industry is entering a decade of projected expansion driven by technological tools, but the rise of generative AI will redefine who captures the value. Listeners should prepare for shifts in subscription models as providers seek to maximize revenue from streaming features.
Further reading
For more analysis on current industry trends, explore the Music — General section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Digital Music News.
Live Poll
Is the growth of AI-generated music likely to harm the long-term earnings of human recording artists?
