U.S. Authorities Revoked 25,000 Mexican Trucking Visas
The reduction in available drivers has caused significant spikes in tender rejections and cross-border freight costs.
Updated on Oct. 13, 2026 in International Trade
Live Poll
Do you expect the current increase in cross-border freight costs to raise your household expenses?
U.S. officials have revoked 25,000 visas for Mexican truck drivers, triggering a severe capacity shortage along the U.S.-Mexico border. This policy shift has caused a significant rise in freight tender rejections and inflated spot rates for major trade corridors.
Why it matters
The sudden loss of cross-border transport capacity has forced a sharp increase in logistics costs for manufacturers and retailers. These constraints on freight flow are projected to persist throughout the region well into 2027.
National tender rejection rates surged to 13.8% compared to 5.7% previously, while San Diego-to-Phoenix spot rates rose 57% year over year. The El Paso tender rejection rate remains near 20% following a peak of approximately 25% in early July.
The details
The shortage of qualified drivers limits the ability of carriers to move cargo, forcing logistics companies to compete for limited capacity. Freight imbalances at the Canadian border further complicate the issue, as carriers avoid markets with weak northbound return freight.
Timeline
In January 2026, the Mexico Contract Volume Index recovered from a sharp drop.
In early July 2026, tender rejections in El Paso peaked at approximately 25%.
On October 3, 2026, Laredo tender rejections touched a low of 6.07%.
On October 10, 2026, Laredo tender rejections rebounded to 7.78%.
By year-end 2026, Canadian rejection rates are expected to rise.
Market Dynamics
This contraction in transport capacity represents a significant departure from the steady growth signaled by the Mexico Contract Volume Index earlier this year. These conditions force a structural realignment of freight corridors as carriers shift capacity to navigate rising costs.
Retail investors with holdings in logistics and manufacturing firms should anticipate downward pressure on profit margins due to higher transport costs. These higher spot rates for cross-border freight will likely influence pricing strategies for consumer goods imported from Mexico.
The takeaway
The drastic reduction in cross-border trucking capacity highlights the fragility of integrated supply chains to sudden regulatory changes. Businesses and investors must prepare for sustained higher freight costs and operational volatility throughout 2027.
Further reading
For more information on global logistics, see our International Trade section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by FreightWaves.
Live Poll
Do you expect the current increase in cross-border freight costs to raise your household expenses?
