El Niño Will Reach Record Intensities By Late 2026
The WMO forecasts a record-breaking weather event persisting through February 2027.
Updated on Oct. 9, 2026 in Forecasts
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The World Meteorological Organization projects a major El Niño event will reach record surface temperature anomalies by late 2026. This phenomenon is expected to remain active through February 2027 with near 100 percent certainty.
Why it matters
El Niño alters global atmospheric circulation by releasing heat stored in the Pacific Ocean, significantly impacting precipitation and temperature distribution worldwide. Understanding these shifts is vital for managing long-term climate risks and agricultural planning.
Meteorologists forecast a sea surface temperature anomaly reaching +3.7°C in the equatorial Pacific, surpassing the 2015-2016 record of +2.6°C. There is a near 100 percent probability the phenomenon will continue through February 2027.
The players
World Meteorological Organization
This is a specialized agency of the United Nations responsible for promoting international cooperation on atmospheric science and climatology.
Kazhydromet
This is the national meteorological service of Kazakhstan responsible for providing weather forecasting and climate monitoring services.
The details
Surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific are warming, which facilitates heat release and reshapes global climate patterns. Researchers at Kazhydromet, examining data from 1951 to 2025, identified specific links between these events and cold-season precipitation in southern and southeastern Kazakhstan.
Timeline
1950 marks the earliest record for intensity comparisons.
1951 to 2025 covers the period analyzed by Kazhydromet.
November 2015 to January 2016 set the previous record of +2.6°C.
October to December 2026 is the window for record surface temperature anomalies.
February 2027 marks the end of the expected El Niño activity.
Seasonal Patterns
This forecast indicates a departure from historical records, as the projected +3.7°C anomaly would rank among the strongest events since 1950. It updates figures previously established by the 2015-2016 El Niño event, reflecting a potentially more intense climate phase.
While the phenomenon will influence precipitation, the lack of a stable relationship between El Niño and air temperatures in some regions suggests localized impacts will vary. Residents in affected areas should monitor regional updates from national meteorological services for specific climate advice.
The takeaway
El Niño remains a powerful driver of global weather systems that can disrupt regional precipitation and agricultural cycles. Stakeholders should leverage long-range climate projections to prepare for potential environmental shifts in the coming months.
Further reading
For more information on climate trends, visit the Forecasts section.
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