Global Trade Expanded Behind AI Tech Demand
The first half of 2026 saw global goods trade grow at its fastest pace since 2011.
Updated on Oct. 7, 2026 in International Trade
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Global trade experienced a significant expansion during the first half of 2026, driven largely by demand for AI infrastructure. AI-enabling goods accounted for 76 percent of total growth in the first quarter of the year.
Why it matters
The surge demonstrates how specialized producers continue to integrate cross-border supply chains to sustain efficiency despite ongoing geopolitical disruptions. Companies are increasingly prioritizing access to alternative markets to maintain trade flows.
Global goods trade expanded faster in the first half of 2026 than in any half-year since 2011, excluding the post-Covid rebound. Projections currently forecast global goods trade will grow by an average of 3.4 percent per year through 2029.
The players
DHL
DHL is a global logistics and international shipping company that tracks trade connectivity trends.
United States
The United States is a primary driver of global tariff policy and accounts for 13 percent of world imports.
China
China remains a key U.S. trade partner despite shifting geopolitical dynamics.
The details
Trade expansion has been fueled by semiconductors and data-transmission equipment necessary for AI development. While trade between the U.S. and China has declined to represent only 1.6 percent of world trade, other regions have seen mixed results, including a 37 percent value decline for Saudi Arabia.
Timeline
U.S.-China trade peaked as a share of world trade in 2015.
Sub-Saharan Africa achieved the world's fastest trade growth in the first six months of 2025.
Sub-Saharan Africa recorded 11 percent trade value growth in the first five months of 2026.
As of August 2026, roughly 50 percent of U.S. imports remained exempt from tariff increases.
Global goods trade is projected to grow 3.4 percent annually through 2029.
Macro View
The current expansion follows the 2025 DHL Globalisation Tracker data, which reached a record level of 25.8 percent. This trend marks a significant departure from historical protectionist cycles by favoring market diversification over broad retaliation.
The expansion of trade in AI infrastructure suggests that businesses are successfully adapting to policy shifts to maintain supply chain flow. Consumers may experience price impacts based on how effectively companies continue to utilize alternative markets to bypass regional disruptions.
The takeaway
Global trade is proving resilient due to the high demand for AI-related goods that incentivize cross-border cooperation. Readers should monitor regional trade shifts, as these patterns often signal future adjustments in global consumer goods pricing.
Further reading
For more on evolving logistics, visit our International Trade section.
More information
View the complete DHL Globalisation Tracker data and charts to analyze regional trade performance.
Live Poll
Do you believe rising global trade helps keep prices lower for your own household?
