Most Polymarket Retail Traders Have Lost Money
A study found that nearly 70% of retail accounts on the prediction platform finished below break-even.
Updated on Oct. 1, 2026 in Investing
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Data from an analysis of 2.9 million accounts on the prediction platform Polymarket revealed that 69.2% of retail-labelled traders have lost money. These retail accounts sustained combined losses totaling $338.9 million.
Why it matters
The findings highlight the significant financial risks inherent in prediction market trading for non-professional participants. This disparity underscores a gap between general retail engagement and the performance of specialized traders on the platform.
The study analyzed 2.9 million accounts, finding retail traders incurred $338.9 million in losses. Among these users, 15.2% stopped trading for at least 30 days following a loss, compared to only 6.1% who paused after a win.
The players
Polymarket
A decentralized prediction market platform where users trade on the outcomes of real-world events.
The details
Researchers defined expert traders as those active in at least five categories with a 60% concentration in one topic, noting that these experts made up 44.1% of all accounts. While sports traders comprised 47% of that expert group, they saw only a 25.1% profitability rate, trailing the 41.2% success rate seen by those focusing on technology and science.
Timeline
30 days: period of inactivity for traders following a loss or win.
October 2026: period when the study findings were analyzed.
Market Dynamics
This study mirrors historical trends seen in global financial markets where retail participants frequently struggle to maintain profitability against more specialized traders. These results underscore the broader macroeconomic reality of risk asymmetry in speculative trading environments.
Retail traders should note that median position sizes for winners were $13.96, while losers averaged $10, highlighting a slim margin of success. The data suggests that non-expert participants face a high statistical probability of capital loss when engaging with such platforms.
The takeaway
The high percentage of retail losses suggests that prediction markets carry risks similar to traditional speculative asset classes. Investors should exercise caution and prioritize understanding the platform-specific expertise required to reach profitability.
Further reading
For more context on market behavior, explore our Investing section.
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Do you believe it is possible for average retail traders to make money on prediction markets?
