Oxford Economics Analyzed Plastics Treaty Policy Options
A new report modeled waste management outcomes ahead of upcoming informal plastics treaty negotiations.
Updated on Sept. 30, 2026 in Economic Policy
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Researchers at Oxford Economics have released a report examining three distinct waste management policy scenarios for a global plastics treaty. The study was commissioned by the International Council of Chemical Associations to assist negotiators in understanding the potential effects of specific interventions.
Why it matters
The findings aim to provide negotiators with data on how various regulatory proposals might influence recycled plastic volumes and global production costs. The report highlights trade-offs between different legislative approaches as stakeholders prepare for upcoming talks.
A landfill tax scenario could increase recycled waste volumes by 64%, while removing trade barriers for recyclable waste would increase recycling volumes by nearly 1%. Meanwhile, a 5% reduction in global plastic production is projected to increase costs for consumers.
The players
Oxford Economics
This is a global advisory firm that provides economic forecasting and quantitative analysis to public and private sector clients.
International Council of Chemical Associations
This organization serves as the global voice for the chemical industry and represents the interests of regional and national chemical associations.
The details
The Oxford Economics research team evaluated how policies such as production caps and regional landfill taxes impact recycling output. The study specifically identifies that targeting landfill taxes in South and East Asia could boost recycling volumes by an additional 4%.
Timeline
Talks on a global plastics treaty ended in deadlock in 2025.
Negotiators are preparing for informal meetings scheduled for September 2026.
Macro View
This research follows a pattern of intense economic modeling used to influence the development of international environmental frameworks. It reflects the broader transition where industry groups use specific policy simulations to advocate for their positions during global treaty negotiations.
The study suggests that policies like global production caps could lead to higher costs for consumers when purchasing plastic-based goods. Readers may see these trade-offs reflected in future consumer pricing and the availability of sustainable packaging options in the coming years.
The takeaway
The report highlights the complexity of balancing environmental goals with economic efficiency in the global plastics market. Policymakers face significant challenges in designing interventions that increase recycling without disproportionately burdening the cost of living for consumers.
Further reading
For more on international regulatory trends, see the latest Economic Policy coverage.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Chemistry World.
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Should governments prioritize incentivizing plastic recycling over placing caps on virgin plastic production?
