Mining Industry Profits Shifted Toward Precious Metals
A new McKinsey report highlights a major pivot from industrial commodities toward gold and other precious metals.
Updated on Sept. 29, 2026 in Investing
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The global mining industry reached $3.6 trillion in normalized revenue in 2026 with EBITDA hitting $1.2 trillion. The sector has seen a significant shift, with gold and precious metals now accounting for 51% of industry earnings.
Why it matters
Revenue growth is currently driven more by high market prices than by an actual increase in production volume. Meanwhile, shifting geopolitical conditions are forcing countries to prioritize domestic supply chains through new trade policies.
Gold and precious metals now constitute 51% of mining industry EBITDA, a sharp increase from 44% in 2025. In contrast, the iron and steel share of EBITDA has declined to 20% from a 32% level recorded in 2024.
The players
McKinsey
This global management consulting firm produces frequent industry-leading research on industrial trends and economic performance.
The details
Capital spending reached $194 billion in 2025, which remains 25% below the 2012 peak as national resource policies—including higher taxes and export restrictions—reshape the industry. Companies are navigating a complex landscape where governments are deploying loans and infrastructure funding to secure critical materials.
Timeline
Capital spending reached a historic peak in 2012.
Metals and mining TSR increased 5.5x between 2015 and 2025.
National resource policy changes accelerated in 2020.
The industry previously hit a revenue peak in 2022.
The report was presented on September 27, 2026.
Market Dynamics
Current industry capital spending remains 25% below the 2012 mining industry capital spending peak, signaling a departure from the high-investment cycles of the past. This trend highlights a broader shift toward disciplined capital allocation despite high revenue figures.
Retail investors should note that mining revenue is currently driven by price volatility rather than production growth, which may increase portfolio risk exposure. Diversification strategies should account for the growing regulatory influence of national resource policies on major mineral producers.
The takeaway
The mining sector is pivoting toward precious metals as geopolitical tensions force a re-evaluation of global supply chain security. Investors should monitor how increased government intervention and export restrictions impact the future profitability of industrial commodities.
Further reading
For more analysis on global sector performance, visit our Investing section.
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