Europe Forecasted to Reach 80% Zero-Carbon Power by 2030
A new report suggests the region will narrowly miss its official renewable energy targets by the end of the decade.
Updated on Sept. 29, 2026 in Energy
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Wood Mackenzie reports that Europe is on track to achieve 80% zero-carbon power generation by 2030, though it will fall short of its specific renewable energy benchmarks. The shortfall is primarily driven by supply gaps in offshore wind that have necessitated continued reliance on natural gas.
Why it matters
The findings highlight the tension between rapidly rising electricity demand from data centers and the logistical hurdles of meeting ambitious climate goals. High costs and market ratios are currently hindering the widespread adoption of essential technologies like heat pumps.
Total power demand across 35 markets will reach 4,103 TWh by 2030, with solar PV capacity hitting 637 GWac. Natural gas generation capacity is slated to reach 273 GW by 2030 to bridge gaps left by offshore wind delays.
The players
Wood Mackenzie
This global research and consultancy firm provides data and analysis for the energy, chemicals, and natural resources industries.
The details
While the EU27 renewable energy share is expected to reach 63.7% by 2030, this remains below the Fit-for-55 target of 65% and the REPowerEU target of 69%. Nuclear power's role has been bolstered by life extensions and new-build programs, while coal generation is projected to decline significantly from 457 TWh in 2025 to 237 TWh by 2030.
Timeline
2025 serves as the base year for measuring power demand and EV consumption.
2030 is the target year for reaching 80% zero-carbon power generation.
2035 marks the year offshore wind capacity is expected to reach 148 GW.
2050 is when the EU27 coal fleet is projected to exit the power mix.
2060 serves as the final year for this long-term market outlook.
Deeper Dive
The report indicates that the region's energy trajectory is currently falling short of the EU's Fit-for-55 renewable energy target. This gap highlights the systemic challenges in reaching legislative climate mandates within the established timeframe.
The reliance on natural gas as a bridge fuel means that energy prices will remain tied to global gas market fluctuations throughout the decade. This transition phase suggests that consumers may not see a full decoupling of utility bills from fossil fuel prices until more storage capacity is online.
The takeaway
Achieving carbon-neutral grids requires balancing rapid demand growth from data centers with the physical reality of supply chains. Investors and policymakers should prioritize grid flexibility and storage capacity to mitigate the volatility inherent in this multi-decade transition.
Further reading
Learn more about the latest developments in the sector on our Energy page.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Financial Post.
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