Researcher Estimated Bitcoin Fair Value at $197,000
Bitwise analysis linked Bitcoin's potential valuation to global money-supply trends on September 29, 2026.
Updated on Sept. 29, 2026 in Investing
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Bitwise researcher Andre Dragosch estimated that Bitcoin's equilibrium fair value reached $197,000 using a global money-supply model. This analysis, released September 29, 2026, highlights that Bitcoin currently trades below this calculated valuation.
Why it matters
The research suggests that Bitcoin's increasing correlation with gold and decoupling from the S&P 500 makes it a distinct asset class. Bitwise recommends a 5% allocation for optimized risk-adjusted returns in diversified portfolios.
Bitwise research places Bitcoin's equilibrium fair value at $197,000 based on a global money-supply model. Analysts suggest a 5% portfolio exposure for standard investors, or 13%-14% for those holding a traditional 60/40 portfolio.
The players
Andre Dragosch
He is a researcher at Bitwise who specializes in quantitative analysis of digital assets and macroeconomic trends.
Bitwise
This is a specialized asset management firm that focuses on providing institutional-grade exposure to cryptocurrency markets.
The details
The analysis points to a mean reversion mechanism where capital rotates from AI stocks into cryptocurrencies as a method to close the price gap. Meanwhile, a 50-basis-point increase in 10-year Treasury yields over the last 20 trading days has tightened broader financial conditions.
Timeline
The analysis was provided on September 29, 2026.
Bitcoin's S&P 500 correlation hit its lowest level since 2015.
Market Dynamics
This analysis reflects a broader shift in institutional asset allocation as investors seek hedges against traditional market volatility. It follows a decade-long evolution in crypto-asset maturity, moving away from historical reliance on equity market correlations.
Retail investors should evaluate how their portfolio's sensitivity to Treasury yields and equity corrections aligns with current exposure recommendations. The report suggests that adjusting allocations toward Bitcoin may serve as a hedge if bond and equity stress triggers policy shifts.
The takeaway
The research emphasizes that Bitcoin's current value proposition is tied to global liquidity rather than short-term equity performance. Investors may want to monitor interest rate volatility, as rising yields continue to influence the broader housing and bond markets.
Further reading
For more background on digital asset analysis, visit our /finance/personal-finance/investing/ section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Benzinga.
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