Africa and Asia Will Drive Refining Growth by 2030
Global refining capacity will undergo a significant shift as development surges across Africa and the Asia-Pacific region.
Updated on Sept. 29, 2026 in Oil and Gas
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Africa and Asia will drive 95% of total global refining growth by 2030 to meet rising demand. This shift contrasts with planned refinery closures across Europe and the United States.
Why it matters
Countries are investing in new infrastructure to reduce their reliance on fuel imports and bolster export capabilities. This trend follows energy supply disruptions that previously pushed refining margins to record highs.
Africa and Asia-Pacific will account for 95% of total global refining growth through 2030, with China and India representing over two-thirds of all capacity additions in 2026 and 2027. Half of this projected growth is either currently operational or under construction.
The players
China
A global leader in industrial manufacturing and energy consumption that is aggressively expanding its domestic refining footprint.
India
A major emerging economy and energy consumer that is significantly increasing its capacity to process crude oil for both domestic and export markets.
The details
Nations are prioritizing these investments to satisfy internal demand and decrease dependence on foreign energy sources. The recent US-Iran war disrupted energy supplies, leading to historically high refining margins that have encouraged further capital expenditure.
Timeline
2026 and 2027: China and India are set to account for most new capacity additions.
2030: The target date for the projected global boom in refining capacity.
Market Landscape
The push for new capacity follows the US-Iran war energy supply disruptions, which exposed vulnerabilities in global fuel availability. This transition signifies a major shift in the industry as traditional refining hubs in the West face closures while the East secures its fuel independence.
The expansion of refinery capacity in Africa and Asia may eventually stabilize fuel prices by increasing the global supply of refined products. Conversely, residents in Europe and the United States might encounter tighter supplies as domestic refineries face ongoing closure pressures.
The takeaway
The move toward regional refining self-sufficiency reflects a broader effort to mitigate the impacts of geopolitical energy volatility. Readers should monitor regional fuel price fluctuations as these large-scale infrastructure projects come online.
Further reading
Learn more about evolving energy infrastructure in the Oil and Gas section.
Live Poll
Do you expect energy costs for your household to decrease as refining capacity increases by 2030?
