Researchers Identified 3°C Warming as Likely Outcome
A study published in August 2026 suggests global warming could reach 3.25°C by 2100 under current policy trajectories.
Updated on Sept. 22, 2026 in Environmental
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Researchers at ETH Zurich and Leipzig University found that current policies may lead to 3.25°C of global warming by 2100. The study, published in August 2026, revised climate models to include recent satellite measurements of Earth's energy imbalance.
Why it matters
The research suggests previous climate models underestimated warming because they failed to fully account for natural cooling patterns like La Niña. This indicates that the climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide emissions may be higher than previously estimated.
The study utilized revised modeling that accounts for a doubling in the gap between absorbed sunlight and radiated heat since 2000. It concludes that Switzerland, which has warmed faster than the global average, faces a potential local temperature increase of 4.9°C.
The players
ETH Zurich
This public research university in Switzerland is a leading institution for science and technology and conducted the climate research.
Leipzig University
Located in Germany, this historic university collaborated with ETH Zurich on the revised climate modeling study.
The details
By incorporating more accurate satellite data, the researchers determined that each tonne of carbon dioxide contributes to more warming than previously assumed. This update follows a 2024 survey in which 42% of IPCC authors expressed an expectation that global warming will reach 3°C or more by the end of the century.
Timeline
2000: The starting point for the observed increase in Earth's energy imbalance.
2003: A benchmark year for major heatwaves throughout Europe and Switzerland.
2015: The year in which the Paris Climate Agreement was signed.
2024: The year a survey of IPCC authors regarding climate expectations was conducted.
2100: The target milestone for global warming projections.
Deeper Dive
The research findings suggest a departure from the temperature stabilization goals outlined in the Paris Climate Agreement.
The study's findings on higher climate sensitivity may necessitate more aggressive global emission reduction targets beyond the currently planned 2030 and 2050 benchmarks. Readers may see increased pressure on governments to revise national climate policies to mitigate these higher projected temperature outcomes.
The takeaway
The study highlights a significant gap between current policy trajectories and the warming levels anticipated by climate scientists. Implementing more rapid transitions away from carbon-intensive energy sources remains a primary strategy for shifting these long-term projections.
Further reading
For more on the current state of climate research, visit the Environmental section.
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